Friday 2 December 2022

🔵 News and Propaganda from - and to - the Front


🔵 The Forbes article below - published uncritically and without any comment, in many languages all over the world - constitutes a "mild" order from the Western powers to Zelensky's Ukrainian forces on how to act so that they can be slaughtered to promote the interests of the West [1].

🔵 It's based on a delusional conception of reality that's more sloganeering than a realistic analysis of what is truly happening on the ground, or on what the actual capabilities of the warring armies are. If you follow the Western Press and Media carefully, you'll see that every few days or weeks there is an impending arrival of Zelensky's Ukrainian fascist troops... in Moscow. They're supposedly "so close to victory"! The following article is based on this narrative, attempting to manipulate the Ukrainians into being slaughtered more and more efficiently, sealing the "need" for more and new weapons from the West.

🔵 "War is good for business, and what's good for business is good for America": advertising hallucinatory capabilities of the Ukrainian forces leads to new massacres and... new sales [2].

Petros Evdokas,

🔵 Some alternative sources of information follow after the Notes at the end of this article.

■ Russian Trenches In Southern Ukraine Are Too Short To Stop A Ukrainian Attack

Nov 29, 2022, David Axe, Forbes Staff: "I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites."

Ukrainian artillery.
Image: Ukrainian artillery. Ukrainian defense ministry photo.

It’s been three weeks since Ukrainian brigades forced Russian troops across the wide Dnipro River in southern Ukraine, liberating Kherson city and bending the arc of Russia’s nine-month-old wider war on Ukraine.

The fighting in the south has slowed since then. But the calm belies the coming escalation. The Russians are digging in. And the Ukrainians are probing for weaknesses in Russia’s new defensive lines.

The weak spots already are evident. “The Russian field fortifications in eastern Kherson are ... optimized to defend against drives along the roads and would be very vulnerable to envelopments across the open countryside,” the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War noted in a detailed study of Russian defenses in southern Ukraine.

Trenches and tank-traps are sprouting up across eastern Kherson Oblast on the Dnipro’s left bank. But the fortifications don’t form long, unbroken lines. Instead, they simply straddle the main roads running south from the Dnipro toward the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula. That’s a foreboding sign for the depleted Russian field armies in the south.

Ukrainian mechanized forces already are adept at crossing rough terrain. That’s how they advanced across northern Kherson starting in September. Yes, Ukraine is cold and muddy right now—less than ideal conditions for a cross-country march. But the ground will get firmer as the temperature continues dropping over the coming weeks. There’s no reason to expect that, once the Ukrainians cross the Dnipro, they won’t again take to the open fields.

Tactically, the Ukrainians could bypass the stiffest Russian positions by going off-road. Operationally, there also are opportunities for the Ukrainians to avoid the densest Russian fortifications.

Scouring satellite imagery, ISW’s analysts identified a lot of new Russian earthworks at the eastern edge of the Kinburn Peninsula, a sandy finger of land curling across the mouth of the Dnipro from the river’s left bank.

Those earthworks make sense. Ukrainian commandos likely have been on the Kinburn Peninsula for at least a couple of weeks now. The new Russian fortifications could complicate a Ukrainian attempt to roll east from Kinburn in order to create a lodgment on Dnipro’s left bank.

But Russian fortifications are much thinner on the opposite side of Kherson Oblast at the border with Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Analysts long have been anticipating a Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhzhia—one that could turn right and get behind the first line of Russian troops on the Dnipro’s left bank.

Image: Institute for the Study of War

The lack of major defenses on the Zaporizhzhia side of Kherson could indicate Russian planners are downplaying the risk of a Ukrainian attack along this axis. Of course, it also is possible the Russians are planning for a mobile defense. Falling back from fort to fort, staying just ahead of the Ukrainians and bleeding them for each mile they advance. If this mobile defense sounds familiar, it’s because that’s how the Ukrainian armed forces have defeated more than a few Russian attacks.

“The Russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern Kherson Oblast,” ISW noted. But this protracted defense might not prevent the establishment of at least one “solid Ukrainian lodgment” on the left bank of the Dnipro River.

So even if the Ukrainians fail to gain a lot of ground in their first attack, they could fall back to their lodgment, reconsolidate and try again. The disposition of Russian forces south of the Dnipro speaks to the Kremlin’s expectations. As the first full winter of the wider war sets in, Russian commanders expect to remain on the defensive. And they might also expect to trade space for time.

The open question is what the Kremlin hopes to buy with that time. It’s possible the Russian army is planning another round of forced mobilization of potentially hundreds of thousands of men. “If Russian forces expect Ukrainian forces to take months to break through their defenses in this [southern] region, they could reasonably expect additional mobilized forces or partially-trained conscripts to arrive in time to stop and possibly reverse the Ukrainian counteroffensive,” ISW explained.

But that expectation hinges on a huge assumption—that future conscripts will be better than current conscripts.

The 300,000 men the Kremlin drafted back in September, and speeded to the front without much training, didn’t prevent Ukrainian forces from liberating huge swathes of their country starting the same month. Why would another couple hundred thousand equally unready conscripts make a difference if the Ukrainians launch an offensive across the Dnipro in December or January?

David Axe:
"I'm a journalist, author and filmmaker based in Columbia, South Carolina".

🔵 Notes

■ Νέα και Προπαγάνδα από και προς το Μέτωπο

■ Οι ρωσικές οχυρώσεις στη Χερσώνα δεν επαρκούν για να εμποδίσουν μια...

■ War Profits Are A Comin’! - Weiss Ratings

🔵 Alternative news sources

SouthFront: Crisis News, World Events, Political SurveySouth Front | Analysis & Intelligence

GRAPHICS Archives - South FrontSouth Front

RT - Breaking News, Russia News, World News and Video

🌿 The "Western Democracies" have almost completely wiped off the map the Russian equivalent of the BBC - an important source of alternative news - called Russia Today []: they have cut off all access to its website, uprooted it from FB, youtube, TikTok, and Twitter; Google, Microsoft, and Meta/Facebook have also cut it off from distribution, search, and advertising.
1. Download the security tool called Browsec, here - it's a free VPN and you don't need ANY registration:
2. After it is installed, open it by clicking on its icon (a globe with a lock), and select a server country. So far the Netherlands option is still working. If needed in the future, try another one. (There are also some paid options.)
3. Visit the page of the Russian service [] - if there is important news, share it with others!

■ Russian state-backed media outlets are getting blocked


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